Monroe. First Due Weather is back with its snow and winter weather forecasts

The first major storm of the year dumped at least a foot of snow last week, a joyful occasion for thousands of kids who got a reprieve from virtual learning and for First Due Weather from the Compound, the hyperlocal Facebook weather site which takes equal joy and providing snow prognostications to its almost 13,000 followers.

“We got cheated from a near perfect anticipated set-up with a lot of cold air in place,” FDW wrote in its post-storm analysis. “The low tracked well west of the benchmark. The heavy snow bands associated with the event ended up setting up 100 miles further northwest, west of Albany, near Oneonta and toward Binghamton.”

As FDW speculated, the greater Binghamton area reported three-foot snowfall totals in that banding area.

“I give a kudos to the Canadian model guidance,” FDW said. ”It scored an ‘A’ with predicting this event. It identified the sleet, the dry slot, and where the heavy snow bands would set-up. Lesson learned, never discount the Canadian model. I had forecasted a wide range of snow with one to two feet or more of snow to cover any potential last-minute changes in storm track. Obviously, even with the forecast verifying it was disappointing as I was anticipating snow totals at the other end of the forecasted snow totals.”

While significant rain is forecast on Christmas Eve and possibly into Christmas Day, FDW is already looking ahead and noting signals for potential wintry events around Dec. 29, Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

As expected, FDW recommended to followers: “Keep watching.”